Pengaruh Penanaman Modal Asing, Nilai Tukar, Ekspor dan Impor Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia's economic growth during 2010-2024 has been influenced by international trade and foreign capital flows, yet empirical findings remain contradictory. This study analyzes the influence of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), exchange rate, exports, and imports on Indonesia's economic growth, both partially and simultaneously. Using quarterly time series data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) covering 60 observations from Q1 2010 to Q4 2024, this quantitative research employs multiple linear regression with the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method using EViews 13 software, preceded by stationarity, cointegration, and classical assumption tests. The results indicate that exports have a positive and significant effect on economic growth with a coefficient of 0.2776 (p-value = 0.0418), while FDI, exchange rate, and imports do not show significant individual effects. However, simultaneously, all four variables significantly influence economic growth with an F-statistic of 4.1847 (p-value = 0.0073) and an Adjusted R² of 25.11%. These findings confirm that in an open economy framework, external sector variables collectively play an important role in Indonesia's economic growth dynamics, with exports emerging as the most dominant factor in driving short-term economic growth, though the complex interactions among FDI, exchange rates, and trade require further analysis to understand their long-term equilibrium relationships.